“Monthly WASDE Report Issued”
USDA released the Monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Summary on Wednesday.
WHEAT:
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 20 million bushels higher as a reduction in expected food use pushes ending stocks to 1 billion bushels. Projected food use is lowered 20 million bushels. High flour extraction rates for a second straight year are reducing the amount of grain needed to produce flour. At the same time, declining per capita consumption is reducing demand for flour and wheat.
Exports of all wheat are unchanged, but hard red winter wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels. The projected marketing-year average farm price is raised 5 cents on both ends of the range to $4.80 to $5.00 per bushel as prices received by producers remain stronger than expected.
Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 2.1 million tons higher mostly reflecting higher beginning stocks in Russia and higher production in Argentina. Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are both raised this month. Global wheat consumption is raised 1.2 million tons. Global ending stocks are projected 0.9 million tons higher. At 196.8 million tons, world stocks are up 60 percent from the recent low in 2007/08.
COARSE GRAINS:
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected slightly lower with a downward revision in estimated corn production and a reduction in projected barley imports. U.S. corn exports are lowered 100 million bushels as larger foreign supplies increase competition. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected 80 million bushels higher.
The projected 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents on the top end of the range to $3.45 to $3.75 per bushel. Projected farm prices are also lowered for sorghum and oats. The all barley farm price is projected higher at $4.40 to $4.60 per bushel compared with $4.25 to $4.55 per bushel last month.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 5.7 million tons higher this month mostly reflecting larger global corn supplies. Coarse grain beginning stocks are raised 1.0 million tons. World coarse grain production for 2009/10 is raised 4.7 million tons.
World corn production for 2009/10 is raised 5.9 million tons with Argentina production increased 3.8 million and South Africa production increased 2.0 million. Global sorghum production is raised 0.6 million tons. Global barley production is lowered 1.2 million tons.
Global coarse grain imports and exports for 2009/10 are largely unchanged, but major shifts among exporters mostly reflect larger corn supplies in Argentina and South Africa. Global consumption of coarse grains and corn, in particular, are little changed,
raising ending stocks with the increase in production. Global corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 6.1 million tons.
RICE:
No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2009/10 rice supply and use balance. On the use side, domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago; however, all rice exports for 2009/10 are lowered 1 million cwt to 100 million. Rough exports are raised 2 million cwt, while combined milled and brown exports (on a rough-equivalent basis) are lowered 3.0 million. Long-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 69.0 million, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged
at 31.0 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.8 million cwt, 1.0 million above last month.
The 2009/10 long-grain season-average price is projected at $12.70 to $13.20 per cwt, down 20 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.45 to $17.95 per cwt, down 5 cents on each end of the range. The all rice season-average price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.40 per cwt, down 15 cents on both ends of the range.
Global 2009/10 rice production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are increased from last month. World consumption is projected at a record 440.6 million tons, up 3.4 million from last month, and up 1 percent from 2008/09. Global ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million tons to 90.9.
OILSEEDS:
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 190 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. Soybean exports
are raised 20 million bushels to a record 1.420 billion reflecting the strong export pace to date. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.730 billion based on a lower projected soybean meal extraction rate. Total soybean meal use remains unchanged. Soybean oil stocks are projected higher due to increased production and lower domestic food use.
Soybean oil used for biodiesel is unchanged at 2.2 billion pounds despite a drop in production in January. Offsetting production gains are expected later in the year as diesel suppliers increase blending to meet biodiesel mandates.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is narrowed to $8.95 to $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $280 to $310 per short ton compared with $270 to $320 previously. The soybean oil price is projected at 33.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 435.3 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month. Higher projections for soybeans, peanuts, rapeseed, and palm kernel are only partly offset by lower cottonseed and sunflower seed production. Global soybean production is raised 0.9 million tons to 255.9 million. Global cottonseed production is reduced mostly due to reductions for China and Uzbekistan. Other changes include increased rapeseed production for Australia, increased peanut and sunflower seed production for China, increased palm kernel production for Indonesia, and reduced sunflower seed production for South Africa. Palm oil production was increased for Indonesia for both 2008/09 and 2009/10.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 71.8 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. Soybeans account for most of the change.
SUGAR:
Projected 2009/10 sugar supply is decreased 30,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower cane sugar production for Texas. On the use side, deliveries of sugar are reduced 50,000 tons, based on pace to date.
For Mexico, projected 2009/10 sugar supply is increased 50,000 metric tons, raw value. Production is decreased 200,000 tons based on continued reports of weather-reduced sugar yields. Imports are increased 250,000 tons based on the import quota announced by Mexico in February. On the use side, consumption of sugar is reduced 300,000 tons to account for increased substitution by corn-based sweeteners. Mexico’s ending stocks of sugar are increased 350,000 tons.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
Total U.S. meat production for 2010 is reduced as lower pork and turkey production more than offset higher broiler production. Beef production is little changed as higher first-quarter steer and heifer slaughter is offset by lower carcass weights. Pork production is lowered as slaughter in the first and second quarters are reduced and weights during the first quarter have been lighter than expected.
Relatively weak turkey prices in 2009 reduced incentives to expand production and hatchery data continues to point to lower production in 2010. Broiler production is forecast higher as hatchery and slaughter data point to larger production in the first quarter.
Export forecasts are unchanged from last month for the major meats. Although the recent resolution of pork sanitary issues will permit exports to Russia, exports to that market will be limited by import quotas.
Cattle, hog, and poultry price forecasts are raised for 2010 as tighter meat supplies are forecast this month.
The milk production forecast is raised for 2010 with milk production expected to be fractionally above 2009. Cow slaughter is relatively low and January milk cow numbers were higher than expected. The pace of herd reduction is slowed from last month. Dairy exports on both a fat and skim-solids basis for 2010 are lowered. Imports for 2009 are adjusted to reflect December trade. Fat and skim-solids ending stocks are forecast higher for 2010 as production is increased and exports are reduced. Cheese prices are reduced as higher stocks are expected to pressure prices. Butter price forecasts are raised slightly on the strength of current demand. Nonfat dry milk prices are forecast lower as export demand lags. Whey prices are raised slightly. The Class III price is reduced as weaker cheese prices more than outweigh gains in whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is lowered reflecting weaker NDM prices which more than offset higher butter prices. The all milk price for 2010 is forecast at $15.55 to $16.15 per cwt.
COTTON:
The U.S. cotton estimates for 2009/10 include higher domestic mill use and lower ending stocks this month. Production and exports are unchanged. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales to 3.5 million, reflecting higher consumption in the months of November through January. Ending stocks are forecast at 3.2 million bales, 20.6 percent of total use. The range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is raised 1.5 cents on the lower end and 0.5 cents on the higher end to 60.5 to 65.5 cents per pound.
A combination of slightly lower production and slightly higher consumption is reducing forecast world cotton 2009/10 ending stocks from last month. World trade is raised 2 percent. World stocks are reduced nearly 700,000 bales, a decline of just over 1 percent from last month.
