NASHVILLE, TN – USDA’s August Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook highlights a tightening U.S. cattle supply that will affect production through 2025 and into 2026. The mid-year Cattle Report showed fewer calves available for placement, along with steady but limited changes in beef cow and replacement heifer numbers. As a result, beef production forecasts are lowered for both years, while cattle prices are revised significantly higher on stronger beef demand and tighter inventories. Imports are also reduced due to limited Brazilian shipments, while exports are trimmed slightly on lower production.
For hogs, USDA cut 2025 pork production by 1 percent to 27.7 billion pounds, citing slower slaughter and lighter weights in the second half of the year. Producer hog prices are forecast at $77 per cwt in the third quarter, up 17 percent from a year earlier. Exports rebounded in June, totaling 552 million pounds, a 5 percent increase.
Beyond cattle and hogs, USDA raised milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 as larger herds and better yields lift output. Broiler production projections also rose on strong hatchery data, though price forecasts eased. Turkey production was adjusted lower, but prices are projected to rise into 2026. Egg output was revised down slightly on lower layer inventories, with prices tracking modestly lower.