WASHINGTON, DC – USDA’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reinforced a supply-heavy outlook for major U.S. crops, led by a record corn crop and rising stocks, while soybeans, wheat, and cotton face varying degrees of balance-sheet pressure.
Corn carries the clearest headline. USDA pegged 2025/26 production at a record 17.0 billion bushels on higher yields and expanded harvested acreage. Feed and residual use were raised, but supplies grew faster than demand, pushing ending stocks to 2.2 billion bushels. Even with heavier stocks, the season-average corn price was nudged higher to $4.10, reflecting strong feed usage and steady demand signals.
Soybeans moved in the opposite direction in price. Production rose modestly, crush increased, but exports fell sharply due to stronger competition from Brazil. Ending stocks climbed to 350 million bushels, driving the projected farm price down 30 cents to $10.20.
Wheat supplies also loosened. Higher beginning stocks and weaker feed use lifted ending stocks to 926 million bushels, pressuring the average price to $4.90 despite stable exports.
Cotton provided the main tightening signal. Lower U.S. production reduced ending stocks by 7 percent, lifting the projected farm price to 61 cents per pound even as global supplies remain ample.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Corn supply dominates the outlook, while soybeans and wheat face stock-driven price pressure, and cotton gains modest support from tighter supplies.