LUBBOCK, TX – Federal assistance has helped blunt recent farm losses, but it has not come close to making producers whole. After several years of rising input costs followed by sharply lower commodity prices, many farmers remain deeply in the red despite multiple rounds of government aid.
From 2023 through 2025, average corn, soybean, and wheat producers accumulated roughly $300 per acre in losses, while cotton losses approached $1,000 per acre. Higher prices tied to global disruptions helped earlier in the decade, but that support faded as markets turned lower in 2023.
Traditional safety-net programs provided limited relief early in the downturn because reference prices were outdated. More meaningful support is coming for the 2025 crop year, but most of that aid will not arrive until late 2026. In the meantime, Congress and USDA added emergency and bridge assistance for 2024 and 2025 losses.
Even with those programs, estimates show federal aid covering only about 35% of losses for cotton and soybeans and about 45% for corn and wheat. Producers absorbed the remaining share themselves.
The outlook suggests losses could deepen in 2026, forcing producers to rely on shrinking equity, additional borrowing, or exit decisions. Analysis provided by the Agriculture Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Federal assistance has helped, but the most recent row-crop losses remain on producers’ balance sheets.