LUBBOCK, TX – Global coffee and cocoa markets are under pressure as improving weather and expanding production outlooks increase expectations for stronger supplies. Commodity traders are watching both crops closely as new forecasts and inventory levels point to shifting supply conditions across major producing regions.
Cocoa prices softened amid expectations for better crop conditions in West Africa. Weather forecasters say rainfall is expected to continue across much of the region, supporting flowering and potential yield improvements. Additional pressure came from rising exchange inventories, which climbed to a seven-month high of more than 2.26 million bags. Earlier rallies were tied to stronger buying interest from Ivory Coast grinders after recent farm-gate price cuts in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together produce more than half of the world’s cocoa.
Operationally, coffee markets are facing significant supply pressure from expectations of a large Brazilian crop. Analysts raised Brazil’s 2026–27 coffee production outlook to roughly 75 million bags, while Brazil’s government previously projected output climbing more than 17 percent year over year. Global coffee production could approach record levels near 180 million bags as expanding robusta output offsets weaker arabica production in some regions.
Regionally, rising exports from Vietnam — the world’s largest robusta producer — are adding to supply pressure after shipments climbed 14 percent during the first two months of the year. Exchange inventories have also increased, with arabica stocks reaching a multi-month high. Meanwhile, disruptions to shipping routes tied to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are raising freight and insurance costs for importers and roasters.
Looking ahead, weather conditions in West Africa and crop prospects in Brazil will remain key drivers for cocoa and coffee markets as traders weigh expanding global supplies against ongoing shipping disruptions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expanding supplies are weighing on global coffee and cocoa prices.