NASHVILLE, TN – Energy market volatility is driving grain and oilseed prices and reshaping 2026 planting decisions. Tanner Ehmke, an economist with Terrain, says rising input costs and shifting price signals are pushing producers toward soybeans and away from corn and wheat.
Soybean acreage is expected to increase, while corn and wheat acres decline. Soybean prices rose nearly 12% in the first quarter, supported by strength in soybean oil and biofuel demand. Corn prices gained about 4%, while wheat posted a stronger rebound of more than 20%.
Higher fertilizer costs are a key factor. Corn remains more input-intensive, reducing its profitability compared to soybeans. At the same time, corn demand remains strong, supported by record exports and steady ethanol use.
Soybean exports have lagged, particularly to China, but domestic crush is accelerating. Wheat markets face additional pressure from expanding drought across key growing regions.
Looking ahead, weather and global energy markets will continue to influence both prices and acreage decisions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising costs and prices are shifting acreage toward soybeans.