NASHVILLE, TN – Changes in immigration policy could significantly reshape the U.S. agricultural labor force in 2026, with potential shifts away from undocumented workers toward expanded use of H-2A guest workers. Economists with North Carolina State Extension say agriculture remains especially vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on foreign labor.
Foreign workers make up roughly two-thirds of the farm labor force, with undocumented workers accounting for about 40% of hired crop labor. Tighter enforcement policies could reduce that workforce, particularly in labor-intensive regions like California, Florida, and the Southeast.
The H-2A program continues to expand, with more than 300,000 visas issued in 2024. Recent program changes — including adjustments to wage calculations and the introduction of skill-based pay tiers — are expected to lower wage requirements in many states and encourage greater use of the program.
While increased H-2A participation could offset some labor losses, challenges remain. Costs, administrative burdens, and long-term labor availability continue to concern producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Labor supply may shift, but uncertainty remains for producers.