WASHINGTON, DC – U.S. pork production is expected to increase modestly in 2026, supported by strong domestic and export demand even as structural changes continue within the hog industry.
Total pork production is forecast at 27.975 billion pounds, up about 1.4% from 2025, driven by slightly higher slaughter numbers and heavier carcass weights. Hog inventories are also running slightly above year-ago levels, particularly in heavier-weight categories, indicating steady near-term supply.
Despite larger production, prices are holding firm. Hog prices are projected to average $69.13 per hundredweight in 2026, slightly higher than last year, supported by solid consumer demand and tight supplies of competing proteins like beef.
Longer-term structural shifts remain in play. The U.S. breeding herd has continued to decline, falling more than 9% since 2020, while productivity gains — including higher pigs per litter — are helping offset fewer sows.
Exports are also providing support. Pork shipments are forecast to reach 7.2 billion pounds in 2026, up more than 3%, with strong demand from Western Hemisphere markets leading the way.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong demand is supporting hog prices despite modest production growth.