URBANA, IL – EPA’s final renewable fuel rule for 2026 and 2027 is expected to sharply tighten the D4 biomass-based diesel credit market. A new farmdoc Daily analysis says the rule sets up a major jump in required D4 RIN generation and could reshape biomass-based diesel production and feedstock demand over the next two years.
The report says the required D4 net RIN generation must rise from 7.10 billion gallons in 2025 to 10.99 billion in 2026 and 11.89 billion in 2027. That would mark increases of 55 percent and 67 percent from the 2025 level.
The biggest driver is the biomass-based diesel mandate itself. The applicable biomass-based diesel requirement rises from 5.42 billion gallons in 2025 to 9.07 billion in 2026 and 9.20 billion in 2027.
The analysis also says ethanol credits will not fully cover conventional fuel obligations, forcing about 1.42 billion gallons of D4 use in 2026 and 1.41 billion in 2027 to fill the gap.
That leaves much less cushion in the system. The report projects that the D4 and D5 banks will fall to minimal levels by 2026, making soybean oil and other feedstock markets more sensitive to production shortfalls.
Farm-Level Takeaway: A tighter D4 market could increase pressure on biofuel feedstocks and add new demand risk for soybean oil.
Here is the link to more information: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-d4-biomass-based-diesel-rin-generation-for-2026-2027.html