NASHVILLE, TN – USDA’s June WASDE report may bring more attention to wheat production than to corn or soybean carryout. Trade estimates ahead of the June 11 release point to only modest changes in U.S. grain ending stocks.
For old-crop 2025/26 supplies, analysts expect corn ending stocks near 2.144 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from USDA’s May estimate. Soybeans are projected at 339 million bushels, while wheat is expected at 940 million bushels.
New-crop 2026/27 estimates show corn ending stocks near 1.942 billion bushels, soybeans near 314 million, and wheat near 760 million. Those figures suggest corn supplies remain comfortable, soybeans stay tighter, and wheat stocks shrink from the prior year.
The production focus is wheat. Analysts expect all-wheat output near 1.566 billion bushels, with hard red winter wheat near 516 million bushels, sharply below last year’s 804 million.
Globally, analysts expect slightly larger soybean production in Brazil and corn production in Argentina. The report could confirm stable corn and soybean balance sheets while highlighting continued wheat crop damage.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Producers should monitor wheat production and soybean carryout, while changes in corn may be limited.