LUBBOCK, TX – Pork production appears headed for little growth as a smaller breeding herd offsets stronger productivity across the hog sector.
Texas A&M livestock economist Dr. David Anderson says USDA’s June Hogs and Pigs report showed the breeding herd at 5.88 million head, down 1.2 percent from last year. That is the smallest June 1 breeding herd since 2014.
Productivity continues to support supplies. Pigs per litter reached a record 11.88 for the December-through-May period, helping offset fewer sows farrowing and keeping market hog numbers near last year.
The lack of expansion is notable because farrow-to-finish profits have remained positive. Anderson says higher construction costs, animal health issues, sow mortality, and weaker hog prices have likely limited growth.
National carcass hog prices entered July near $92 per hundredweight, down from last July’s peak of $108.79. The pork cutout is about 20 percent below last year, with futures offering little signal for stronger prices ahead.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Hog producers should monitor breeding herd size, productivity gains, and pork cutout values before planning expansion.