LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. cotton’s financial crisis now reaches beyond weak farm prices because Brazil is capturing export customers that may not return. Gherzi Americas Managing Partner Bob Antoshak says projected producer losses and shrinking demand threaten the industry’s long-term position.
Farm Bureau estimates cotton losses at $342 per acre in 2026 and $406 in 2027, totaling about $3.8 billion. Six consecutive years of negative returns would further drain working capital and increase dependence on operating loans.
The larger danger is export reliance. USDA projects U.S. cotton exports at 12.3 million bales against domestic mill use of only 1.6 million. Brazil is expected to export 15 million bales after building scale, traceability, quality testing, financing, and stronger mill relationships.
World demand remains weak as polyester gains market share and overseas spinning mills struggle with poor margins. Once mills qualify Brazilian cotton and adjust blends, temporary trade agreements may not automatically restore U.S. business.
Emergency payments could preserve acreage, but they cannot rebuild customers. The industry must strengthen export promotion, buyer financing, consistent quality, traceability, and Western Hemisphere textile capacity.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cotton survival depends on winning back export customers, not simply maintaining planted acreage.