LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. beef herd expansion remains limited despite exceptionally low cow slaughter and a modest increase in replacement heifers. University of Arkansas economist James Mitchell says the July inventory report was more bullish than expected because beef cow numbers still declined.
Beef cows totaled 28.45 million head, or 99 percent of last year. That surprised analysts because January-through-June beef cow slaughter was only 3.7 percent of the January inventory, the lowest rate since the 1980s.
The 2026 calf crop is projected at 32.5 million head, equal to 98 percent of 2025. A smaller calf supply could further restrict feeder-cattle availability and eventually reduce beef production.
Replacement heifers reached 3.8 million head, or 103 percent of last year, but the increase was only 100,000. Heifers still represented 37.4 percent of feedlot inventories, compared with 32.5 percent during the 2015 expansion period.
Drought continues limiting widespread rebuilding. Markets will also weigh the smaller herd against USDA’s planned phased reopening of Mexican feeder-cattle imports.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Low cow slaughter has not produced broad expansion, leaving cattle supplies tight and rebuilding slow.