LUBBOCK, TX – Fertilizer prices are expected to remain above pre-Iran war levels through 2028, extending cost pressure for U.S. farmers. CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange says Middle East instability, limited feedstocks and tight phosphate supplies will keep nutrient markets elevated well beyond 2027.
The Middle East supplies more than 60 million tons of fertilizers and raw materials annually, including 45 million tons moving through the Strait of Hormuz. The region accounts for half of global sulfur trade and more than 30% of global urea exports.
U.S. exposure is greatest in urea and phosphate. CoBank says damaged or idled plants across the Middle East, South Asia, and Russia are tightening supply, while China’s phosphate export restrictions and high sulfur costs are adding pressure.
Farmers have responded with soil testing, variable-rate technology and tighter nutrient management. Some have cut phosphate and potassium applications by 10% to 15%, while generally protecting nitrogen rates to avoid yield losses.
If prices remain high into fall, more applications could shift to spring, increasing logistical pressure on retailers and narrowing fieldwork windows for producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Elevated fertilizer prices could keep input budgets tight through 2028 and complicate fall-versus-spring application decisions.