LUBBOCK, TX – Fertilizer costs could remain elevated through 2027 and potentially into 2028 as tight phosphate supplies, geopolitical risks and affordability concerns continue shaping the market. CoBank lead economist Jacqui Fatka says some of the pressures producers faced in 2026 are likely to persist.
Urea prices have fallen back near pre-war levels, but Fatka says part of that decline reflects farmers delaying purchases or reducing fertilizer use rather than a complete supply recovery.
Producers entered 2026 with relatively strong fertilizer inventories because many had purchased ahead. Midwest growers generally locked in more supplies early, while some Southern producers faced greater exposure to higher prices. Overall nutrient use declined roughly 10% to 15%.
Additional Moroccan phosphate imports and planned domestic production could improve supply, but new capacity will require significant investment and time. Trade relationships also remain important for the availability of potash and phosphate.
For producers, fertilizer purchasing strategy will remain important as crop prices struggle to keep pace with elevated input expenses.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Fertilizer affordability could remain a major pressure on farm budgets through 2027 and beyond, despite recent price relief.