NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. grain transportation demand is strengthening ahead of harvest, but higher rail premiums, tariff increases and fuel costs could add pressure to basis and producer returns as larger volumes move through the system.
Class I railroads originated 27,829 grain carloads during the week ending August 22, up 12% from last year and 26% above the three-year average. September shuttle bids averaged $638 per car above tariff, sharply higher than both the prior week and last year.
Barge movement also increased, reaching about 540,000 tons for the week ending August 29, up 14% from the previous week and 41% from a year earlier.
Mexico remains an important rail destination. Corn exports by rail totaled 13.9 million metric tons through the first 10 months of 2025/26, 32% above the five-year average, while Bartlett opened a new Illinois shuttle elevator aimed partly at Mexico demand.
Transportation costs remain a concern. Several railroads raised soybean tariffs, while diesel averaged $5.599 per gallon, nearly $1.87 above last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong grain movement supports market access, but rising rail and fuel costs could reduce the price producers ultimately receive.