WASHINGTON, DC – U.S. farm sector debt is forecast to reach a record $605.1 billion in 2026, rising faster than assets and equity and adding another sign of financial pressure across agriculture.
USDA projects total debt will increase by $26.4 billion, or 4.6%, from 2025. Real estate debt is forecast at $399 billion, up 4.6%, while non-real-estate debt rises 4.4% to $206.1 billion.
Farm assets are expected to increase 3% to $4.47 trillion, largely because of higher farm real estate values. Sector equity rises 2.7% nominally to $3.86 trillion but slips slightly after inflation.
Because debt is growing faster than assets, USDA expects farm-sector solvency to worsen. The debt-to-asset ratio increases from 13.34% in 2025 to 13.54% this year, while inflation-adjusted debt rises 1.5%.
Working capital is forecast to improve 3.5% after falling 15% last year, providing some liquidity relief. Other debt-service measures, however, indicate continued pressure as producers carry increasingly expensive obligations.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising farm debt and weaker solvency leave producers more exposed to high interest costs, tighter margins and future income shocks.