LUBBOCK, TX – Beef markets repriced sharply during August even though underlying cattle supplies changed little, highlighting how quickly expectations can shift profitability across the supply chain. Brian McFarlane of McFarlane Enterprises tracked the moves using seven-day rolling averages.
From August 1 through September 3, McFarlane’s analysis shows Choice cutout values rising 18.6% to $376.76 per hundredweight. Feeder cattle fell 7.1% to $332.90, while live cattle declined 6.9% to $218.46.
The biggest swing came in estimated packer margins, which moved from about negative $198 per head to positive $254, an improvement of roughly $452 per head. McFarlane stresses those margins are estimates.
His timeline overlays major market and policy developments, including cattle reports, processor changes, and announcements involving additional lean-beef imports. The chart shows association, not proof that any single event caused a specific price move.
For producers, the lesson is how rapidly market expectations can alter cattle values even when biological supply changes slowly.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cattle producers face growing headline and policy risk because market expectations can move prices far faster than physical cattle supplies change.