LUBBOCK, TX – Southern Plains winter wheat producers are approaching planting with rapidly worsening drought, while a strengthening El Niño could alter moisture prospects later in the growing season, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension grain economist Mark Welch.
About 89% of the Southern Plains Climate Hub region was experiencing some degree of drought September 1, up from 58% one month earlier. Extreme and exceptional drought persisted across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Poor subsoil moisture could complicate planting, emergence, and early grazing prospects if rainfall remains limited. Forecasts showed some near-term precipitation potential, but the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles were expected to receive only light rain.
Longer term, the Climate Prediction Center outlook Welch cited shows El Niño strengthening through fall and winter. The event could become the strongest since the 2015-16 winter.
El Niño does not guarantee improved rainfall at individual farms. Producers will still need timely precipitation as planting advances and winter wheat establishes before dormancy.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Southern Plains wheat producers face difficult planting moisture conditions while watching whether strengthening El Niño improves later-season rainfall.