LUBBOCK, TX – Higher wheat prices and improved moisture prospects could encourage more winter wheat planting for 2027 after a historically difficult 2026 season, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension grain economist Mark Welch.
U.S. winter wheat production totaled 990 million bushels in 2026, the smallest crop since 1963. Harvested acreage was the lowest reported since 1909, while the 47-bushel national yield was the lowest since 2015.
Welch says the season-average farm price rising from $5.06 in 2025 to $6.20 in 2026 could encourage additional acreage. July 2027 futures were recently $7.53 for Chicago wheat and $8.11 for Kansas City wheat.
A developing El Niño could also improve production prospects. Forecasts show more than a 90% chance of a very strong event, increasing the likelihood of wetter conditions across parts of the South during winter.
Higher futures also strengthen crop-insurance revenue guarantees, although fertilizer, fuel and other expenses remain elevated. Producers can additionally use wheat for grain, forage, pasture or seasonal cover.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stronger prices, crop-insurance protection and potentially better moisture could make winter wheat more competitive for 2027 planting decisions.
(Tags: winter wheat, wheat prices, wheat acreage, El Niño, crop insurance, Mark Welch