GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – Global agricultural raw-material trade remains above trend despite Middle East disruptions and broader trade uncertainty, according to the World Trade Organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer.
The agricultural raw-materials component registered 102.6 in July, above the baseline level of 100. WTO says readings above 100 indicate trade volumes are running above recent trends, not that trade has increased by the same percentage.
The broader goods barometer reached 102.0, suggesting merchandise trade growth continues to strengthen into the third quarter. Export orders also improved, providing another positive signal for global demand.
Container shipping slipped slightly below trend, however, while conflict near the Strait of Hormuz remains a risk for energy prices and transportation costs. WTO previously projected 2026 merchandise trade growth at 1.9% under its baseline outlook and 1.4% under a higher-energy-price scenario.
For U.S. agriculture, resilient global commodity trade provides a supportive demand backdrop, although freight, fuel, and trade-policy uncertainty remain important risks for exporters.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Above-trend agricultural trade supports export demand, but energy and transportation disruptions remain important risks for U.S. producers.