LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. railroads are making only modest corn tariff increases for the 2026/27 marketing year, signaling expectations for continued heavy grain movement even with a smaller crop. USDA still projects the second-largest corn harvest on record.
The crop is forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, down 7% from last year’s record but 4% above the five-year average. Domestic use is projected at 12.9 billion bushels, while exports are forecast at 3.3 billion.
Most major railroads are raising corn tariffs by roughly $200 to $225 per car. BNSF is also cutting selected rates to Mexico, potentially shifting some Illinois corn traffic away from Union Pacific.
Western Corn Belt rail demand could ease from last year as production declines in Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Those regions depend heavily on rail because barge access is limited.
Export demand remains strong. Commitments totaled about 685 million bushels by September 10, including 262 million to Mexico, while Black Sea disruptions could create additional opportunities for U.S. corn.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong corn demand should keep rail capacity important even as this year’s crop falls below last year’s record.