LUBBOCK, TX – Canada’s cattle herd is beginning to expand as improved pasture conditions, stronger producer profitability and increased heifer retention support rebuilding. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts the Canadian herd will grow about 3% from 2026 to 2027, adding cattle supplies as the U.S. herd remains tight.
The report says beef cow numbers are expected to increase about 1% in 2027, while the calf crop also grows about 1%. Reduced cow slaughter and greater retention of replacement heifers are helping shift Canada from consolidation toward expansion after several drought-affected years.
Canada imported a record number of U.S. cattle during the first half of 2026, but those flows are expected to slow. A larger domestic calf crop, higher fuel costs and tighter feeder margins are expected to reduce Canadian demand for imported cattle in 2027.
USDA also forecasts Canadian live cattle exports will decline slightly in 2027. Increased heifer retention, U.S. processing consolidation and stronger domestic cattle supplies are expected to reshape cross-border feeder and slaughter cattle movement.
Producers should watch the pace of Canada’s herd rebuilding and changes in U.S. processing capacity. Those trends could affect feeder cattle competition, slaughter supplies and beef trade across the North American market.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Canada’s herd expansion could gradually shift feeder cattle flows and increase competition across the North American beef market.