KANSAS CITY, MO – U.S. agricultural exports are projected to increase in 2026, but the mix of major buyers continues to shift as China remains well below its 2022 peak, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
The bank says exports to China increased nearly 50% during the first half of 2026. However, that rebound follows a 78% decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China between 2022 and 2025.
Mexico has continued expanding purchases of U.S. agricultural products and is providing more growth than other major markets. Canada remains the second-largest U.S. agricultural trade partner, but exports there have been relatively stagnant for four years.
The changing pattern leaves producers less dependent on a single major market but also highlights how difficult it has been to replace lost Chinese demand. Total U.S. agricultural exports are expected to rise this year without returning to 2022 highs.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based its 2026 projection on USDA trade data through July.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Growing exports to Mexico and other markets are helping offset weaker long-term demand from China.