LUBBOCK, TX – Declining irrigation capacity across the southern High Plains is forcing farmers toward harder economic decisions as the Ogallala Aquifer loses usefulness long before groundwater physically disappears.
John Duff, founder of Serō Ag Strategies, says Hockley County irrigation peaked decades ago and has been retreating since the 1960s. Farmers have already reduced irrigated acres, changed crops, tied wells together and invested in more efficient systems.
The next adjustments may be more expensive. Remaining irrigated acres often carry substantial capital investment, including subsurface drip systems that can cost about $1,500 per acre. Weakening wells can turn that equipment into stranded assets and reduce a farm’s ability to service debt.
Duff says the exposure extends beyond individual farms. Feedlots, dairies, ethanol plants, cotton gins, elevators, equipment dealers, processors, banks and rural communities all depend on production supported by High Plains groundwater.
He argues future conservation programs must create financial value for farmers, lenders and supply-chain partners if water use is expected to decline further.
Farm-Level Takeaway: The next stage of Ogallala decline could require financial solutions that protect both farm viability and the rural economy built around irrigation.