FAYETTEVILLE, AR – Beef imports under the Trump administration’s temporary tariff-rate quota fell well short of the first monthly allocation, limiting the amount of additional supply reaching the U.S. market, according to University of Arkansas economist James Mitchell.
The policy allows 300,000 metric tons of beef to enter over 90 days in three monthly tranches of 100,000 metric tons. Through September 28, only 37,486 metric tons had entered under the first tranche, leaving 62,514 metric tons unused.
Mitchell estimates just 8,054 to 21,936 metric tons may represent beef that would not otherwise have entered the United States. The range reflects different comparisons using USDA forecasts and historical imports from eligible countries.
USDA increased its 2026 beef import forecast by 64,455 metric tons between July and September, equal to about 21% of the full 300,000-metric-ton plan.
Mitchell says the first tranche did not produce 100,000 metric tons of new beef, and retail beef prices showed no noticeable response.
Farm-Level Takeaway: The temporary import quota has added some beef supply, but early volumes remain far below the policy’s maximum allowance.