GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – Middle East conflict sharply disrupted fertilizer trade in 2026, driving major price swings even as suppliers outside the region helped prevent a deeper global shortage, according to the World Trade Organization.
The Gulf supplied 24.8% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports and 11.4% of phosphate exports in 2024. After conflict disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, urea prices more than doubled to about $850 per metric ton in April.
Prices later eased, with urea near $400 per metric ton by July, while phosphate prices rose 25% to about $780 and remained elevated through August. Governments also imposed additional fertilizer trade restrictions.
Replacement supply helped stabilize availability. From March through June, global nitrogen fertilizer imports were only 2.8% below the 2023-2025 average, while phosphate imports were 2.2% higher.
The WTO says elevated fuel and fertilizer prices remain a risk to global trade and inflation, leaving farmers exposed to renewed input-cost pressure if shipping disruptions worsen.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Replacement fertilizer supplies have limited shortages, but renewed shipping disruptions could quickly raise input costs for producers.