BEIJING, CHINA – Weather-related quality problems in China’s wheat crop are pushing more grain into livestock feed, increasing competition with corn while creating a complicated outlook for wheat imports, according to USDA’s Beijing office.
Rain during harvest reduced quality in several major producing provinces. USDA reports sprouting, low test weight and toxin problems, with sprouted wheat accounting for more than 40% of production in many affected areas.
Feed use has strengthened because lower-quality wheat is often discounted and does not qualify for government-supported purchases. Feed wheat inclusion has risen to 30% to 50% in some areas as buyers substitute wheat for corn.
USDA forecasts Chinese wheat feed use near 32 million metric tons in 2026/27, up from about 30 million the previous year. Total wheat consumption is projected at 150 million metric tons.
Wheat imports are forecast at 6 million metric tons, but higher world prices and tighter supplies could restrain purchases into early 2027.
Farm-Level Takeaway: More low-quality Chinese wheat moving into feed could pressure corn demand while limiting opportunities for imported grain.