GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – Global merchandise trade is growing much faster than previously expected in 2026 as artificial intelligence investment offsets energy and fertilizer disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict, according to the World Trade Organization.
The WTO raised its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%, up sharply from a 1.9% baseline projection in March. It now expects merchandise trade volume to grow another 4.1% in 2027.
Artificial intelligence-related investment has been the primary driver. Goods used for artificial intelligence infrastructure accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in value terms during the first half of 2026.
The stronger trade outlook comes despite reduced shipments of oil, natural gas and fertilizers. The WTO says those commodity disruptions have raised prices and restrained trade, but investment in semiconductors, data centers and digital infrastructure has more than offset the drag.
For agriculture, stronger overall trade supports global demand, while higher energy and fertilizer costs remain significant risks to production expenses, transportation and purchasing power.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stronger global trade could support agricultural demand, but energy and fertilizer disruptions remain important risks for producer costs.