WASHINGTON, DC – USDA says weaker domestic and export demand is pressuring the pork sector, with fourth-quarter hog prices expected to fall more than 15% from a year earlier even as pork production declines.
The Economic Research Service forecasts fourth-quarter pork production at 7.2 billion pounds, about 1% below last year. Producer-sold hog prices are projected at $55 per hundredweight. For all of 2026, hog prices are expected to average nearly $64, down 7.3%.
USDA says August pork exports totaled 516 million pounds, down almost 5% from a year earlier and marking a third consecutive monthly decline. Shipments to Mexico, the largest U.S. pork market, fell 11% to 200 million pounds.
The report cites stronger foreign competition and expanding Mexican pork production. USDA also expects consumers facing high beef prices to shift more purchases toward chicken, adding pressure to domestic pork demand.
Pork production is forecast at 27.6 billion pounds in 2026 and 27.8 billion in 2027. USDA projects 2027 producer hog prices near $63 per hundredweight, about 1.2% below 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower hog prices despite tighter near-term production point to continued demand pressure for pork producers.