LUBBOCK, TX – Persistent drought across the western United States could continue limiting cattle herd rebuilding even if El Niño brings better moisture to parts of the Plains this winter.
Matt Makins of Makins Weather says current drought conditions rival some of the worst periods on record, with parts of the West experiencing hydrological drought deeper than anything measured since records began in 1895.
He says even a historically strong El Niño would probably improve western conditions without fully eliminating the drought. That leaves cattle producers facing continued uncertainty over pasture recovery, hay supplies and carrying capacity.
Makins sees better opportunities across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and eastern New Mexico, where increased precipitation could improve wheat pasture and forage conditions over the next six to nine months.
He says improved moisture could create opportunities to retain heifers and begin rebuilding, but producers should remain cautious because longer-term weather patterns still favor recurring drought across much of the region.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Better moisture could create opportunities to rebuild cattle numbers, but persistent drought remains a major limit on expansion.