LUBBOCK, TX – Southwest cotton producers are facing sharply higher abandonment and weaker yields in 2026/27 as drought cuts harvested acres and production across the region.
USDA projects the Southwest upland cotton abandonment rate at 34%, up from about 24% last season. Harvested area is forecast at 4.3 million acres despite planted area increasing 12% to 6.5 million acres.
Regional upland production is projected at 4.6 million bales, down 23% from the 2025/26 crop. USDA forecasts the Southwest yield at 517 pounds per harvested acre, the lowest since 2003/04 and well below the five-year average.
The Southwest decline contrasts with stronger production expectations in the Delta and Southeast. National cotton production is forecast at 13.4 million bales, the second smallest U.S. crop since 2015/16.
USDA projects the 2026/27 upland cotton farm price at 77 cents per pound, nearly 15 cents above last season, while U.S. ending stocks fall to a three-year low of 3.8 million bales.
Farm-Level Takeaway: High abandonment and weak yields are sharply reducing Southwest cotton output despite increased planted acreage.