LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. grain shippers are entering the 2026/27 marketing year with elevated freight costs as large supplies keep transportation demand strong across rail, barge and ocean routes.
USDA projects combined fall grain supplies at 25.38 billion bushels, 4% above the recent average. The total includes beginning stocks plus new corn, soybean and sorghum production moving into the system.
Diesel costs remain a major driver. U.S. retail diesel reached a record $6.529 per gallon in September, while rail fuel surcharges are expected to move above previous records during November.
Barge transportation is also expensive. Third-quarter St. Louis spot rates averaged $25.67 per ton, up 50% from the second quarter, while low Mississippi River levels added logistical pressure.
Ocean freight remains elevated as well, increasing costs for moving grain into export markets. USDA says strong shipping demand, fuel expenses and global transportation risks could keep freight costs high.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large grain supplies and elevated transportation costs could pressure producer basis and export competitiveness during the new marketing year.