KYIV, UKRAINE – Ukraine’s grain exports are falling sharply as intensified Russian attacks disrupt ports, railways, bridges, border crossings and marine traffic, leaving more grain inside the country.
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says average grain exports during the first three months of the 2026/27 marketing year were about half the 2025/26 pace. Kyiv now estimates wheat exports at roughly 320 million bushels, barley at about 92 million bushels and corn at about 402 million bushels.
Corn production was raised to roughly 1.32 billion bushels as harvest yields improved, although some corn could remain in fields through winter because individual farms lack sufficient storage and transportation capacity.
The export slowdown is expected to create record ending stocks. USDA projects nearly 772 million bushels of corn and about 434 million bushels of wheat remaining at the end of the marketing year.
Ukraine says temporary storage is available, but continued attacks on transportation infrastructure could keep exports constrained and inventories elevated through 2026/27.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Reduced Ukrainian exports could limit near-term global competition, while large accumulated stocks remain a market risk if shipping conditions improve.