PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA – South African farmers are expected to reduce corn acreage sharply as record diesel costs and the threat of a strong El Niño push producers toward crops with lower input costs and better drought tolerance.
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts corn production at about 587 million bushels in 2026/27, down 19 percent from a record crop of roughly 724 million bushels this season. Planted area is expected to fall nearly 12 percent.
Fuel costs are adding to the pressure. USDA says local diesel prices have climbed 65 percent from a year earlier, squeezing margins as farmers prepare for a potentially drier growing season.
Some producers are expected to shift acreage into sunflower seed, which requires fewer inputs and handles drought better. USDA forecasts sunflower area could increase about 40 percent, while soybean acreage is expected to remain near record levels.
Corn will remain South Africa’s dominant summer crop, but weather and input costs could significantly alter the country’s production mix.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising fuel costs and El Niño risk are pushing South African farmers toward lower-cost crops while reducing expected corn production.