LUBBOCK, TX – Corn may have regained a path toward $5 after USDA cut production and ending stocks, but additional tightening will still be needed before producers see more attractive 2027 pricing opportunities.
Kluis Commodity Advisors commodity advisor Cole Raisbeck says USDA’s November yield estimate of 179.6 bushels per acre moved the market in a more supportive direction after bearish surprises in September and October.
USDA also lowered corn ending stocks to about 1.75 billion bushels, down roughly 91 million bushels from the October estimate. Raisbeck says that is progress, but the market may need carryout closer to 1.5 to 1.6 billion bushels to put $5 corn back within more comfortable reach for producers.
Export demand remains one limitation. USDA reduced projected corn exports by 25 million bushels, reflecting a pace that has lagged seasonal expectations.
Raisbeck says managed money has sold heavily during the past two months, making the next question whether the November report can slow that selling enough for corn to build a base and turn higher into year-end.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Corn has moved in a more supportive direction, but a tighter carryout and steadier demand may still be needed before $5 becomes a stronger pricing opportunity.