LUBBOCK, TX – Soybean prices rallied after USDA’s November reports even as the agency raised yield and confirmed a record crop, with stronger demand and tighter ending stocks providing support.
Kluis Commodity Advisors commodity advisor Cole Raisbeck says USDA increased the national soybean yield from 53.1 to 53.3 bushels per acre, producing a record crop.
The balance sheet, however, turned more supportive. USDA increased projected soybean exports by 25 million bushels and lowered domestic ending stocks to about 300 million bushels.
Raisbeck says that puts the stocks-to-use ratio near 6.5 percent, helping explain why soybean futures held their gains after the report despite larger production.
Global numbers added another bullish element. Traders had expected world soybean ending stocks to increase, but USDA instead lowered them to roughly 123.5 million metric tons, below the average trade expectation near 124.7 million.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Record soybean production is being offset by stronger export demand and tighter domestic and global stocks, giving the market more support than production alone would suggest.