LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. cattle supplies could remain historically tight through 2027 as meaningful herd rebuilding may take another year to develop.
CoBank livestock economist Abby Groves expects the cattle herd to remain relatively stable heading into 2027, with a stronger rebuilding opportunity potentially developing in 2028.
The timing will depend heavily on drought, pasture conditions and feed costs. Improved forage and favorable economics would give cow-calf producers more incentive to retain heifers rather than continue sending them into the beef supply.
The slow rebuilding process means tight cattle availability could continue shaping feeder prices, fed cattle procurement and beef production well beyond the current marketing year.
Beef-on-dairy cattle and heavier carcass weights have helped maintain beef output despite the smaller traditional herd, but neither replaces the need for additional beef cows and replacement females over the longer term.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies may continue through 2027 unless improving pasture and feed conditions encourage producers to begin retaining more females.