LUBBOCK, TX – The U.S. sorghum crop is forecast at 9.94 million metric tons for 2025/26, up nearly 14% from last year, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. Despite strong production, domestic demand is projected to fall by almost 25%, leaving the market heavily dependent on exports. China is the key buyer, with USDA expecting imports of nearly 8 MMT and U.S. shipments potentially doubling to 5.72 MMT this year. Still, trade tensions remain a hurdle, as China imposed duties and suspended firms earlier in 2025, slashing U.S. shipments by more than 95% in the first half of the year.
Other buyers like Mexico, Spain, and Vietnam are steady or emerging, but none rival China’s scale. Australia and Argentina have stepped in to fill part of the void, with some sorghum already cleared for baijiu, a traditional Chinese liquor. USDA projects a season-average farm price near $3.70 per bushel, with sorghum trading at a discount to corn. Analysts say Gulf basis levels will stay fragile until Chinese demand resumes.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Sorghum farmers face strong supply but uncertain access to their largest market. Hedging against corn futures and monitoring export flows will be critical, with geopolitics driving prices as much as yields.