NASHVILLE, TN – Cattle economists across the South say USDA’s July Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed reports confirm continued herd contraction and limited signs of expansion. The 2025 calf crop is expected to be 1.3% smaller than last year, and beef cow inventory is down 1.2% from 2023. Economists note that fewer heifers are being retained for breeding, despite a drop in beef cow slaughter over the past year.
Dr. Will Secor of the University of Georgia sees signs that the cattle inventory may be near a bottom, but expansion appears slow. Dr. Kenny Burdine at the University of Kentucky says the drop in beef cow slaughter likely softened the decline in overall numbers, though retention remains sluggish. He notes Kentucky producers are still selling heifers due to high prices and land constraints.
University of Tennessee’s Andrew Griffith points out that despite fewer cows and a smaller calf crop, a rebound in beef cow numbers could arrive in 2026—weather permitting. Dr. Josh Maples of Mississippi State sees stabilization, not expansion, with lower heifer placements into feedlots offset by smaller calf crops. Regional observations from Florida and Arkansas echo similar caution about rebuilding, with tight calf supplies expected to support feeder prices.