LUBBOCK, TX – China’s newly announced safeguard tariffs on beef imports are less about foreign competition and more about self-inflicted market swings, according to analysis from Fred Gale, an economist specializing in Chinese agricultural markets. Gale argues that the move punishes trading partners for volatility caused by a series of internal shocks rather than by import pressure.
Beef prices in China rose roughly 20 percent between 2019 and 2021, largely driven by a massive pork shortage caused by African swine fever. That shortage spilled into beef demand, pulling in higher imports as prices climbed. Imports did not depress prices — rising prices attracted imports. When pork production later overexpanded, and China’s economy slowed amid COVID lockdowns, meat prices collapsed in 2023–24, taking beef with them.
Additional pressure came from a large dairy cattle cull in 2023, which flooded the market with more beef amid an already weakening market. With prices falling, Beijing turned to safeguard tariffs as a rescue measure, despite imports having already stabilized.
While global beef supplies remain tight, Gale warns China’s trading partners should expect continued policy swings driven by internal crises rather than predictable market signals.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable.