NASHVILLE, TN – China’s corn market is tightening as widespread mold damage reshapes supplies following what was expected to be a record 2025 harvest. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale reports that continuous heavy rains in the North China Plain left large areas unharvestable and caused mold or sprouting in grain brought off fields — sharply reducing usable feed-quality corn.
Early signs of tightness appeared in heavily affected provinces such as Shandong, where prices failed to decline after harvest, and some reports estimate that up to 70 percent of market-offered corn is too wet or damaged for feed. Meanwhile, northeastern provinces like Jilin and Heilongjiang harvested high-quality crops, but rail constraints and snowfall slowed movement into deficit regions.
For feed mills, deteriorating corn quality has spurred purchases of local wheat, higher-grade northeastern corn, and early inquiries into imported barley and sorghum as they attempt to maintain rations during a weakening livestock cycle. Southern feed users remain cautious and are keeping inventories light.
Regionally, China’s limited 2025 feed-grain imports — down roughly 90 percent year over year — reflect ongoing controls following last year’s abrupt halt in imports. Russia has become the most consistent supplier, while U.S. corn shipments remain minimal despite strong global demand.
Looking ahead, Dr. Gale notes uncertainty over whether low imports represent a new baseline or whether China will return to the 40–50 million metric tons of feed-grain imports seen from 2021 to 2024.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.