WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – Farmer confidence weakened slightly in December as uncertainty surrounding trade and export competitiveness continued to cloud longer-term expectations, according to the latest Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index slipped three points to 136, driven entirely by softer future outlooks rather than deterioration in current conditions.
Analysis from Michael Langemeier and James Mintert at Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture shows the Future Expectations Index declined four points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128. Concerns about soybean exports were a central factor, particularly rising competition from Brazil. Nearly 86 percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned about Brazil’s export competitiveness, with almost half describing themselves as very concerned.
Despite those trade worries, producers’ views of their own farm finances remained relatively stable. Expectations for 2025 financial performance improved modestly, and optimism surrounding farmland values strengthened further. The long-term farmland value index reached a new record high, reflecting continued confidence in land as a core asset.
Tariff confidence, however, softened. More producers expressed uncertainty about whether tariffs will strengthen agriculture over the long run, underscoring how trade policy remains a key sentiment risk heading into 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade uncertainty — especially around soybeans — continues to weigh on future outlooks, even as farm finances and land values remain resilient.