NASHVILLE, TN – The nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer markets are entering a period of historic price stress, according to Josh Linville of StoneX. India recently capped its latest urea purchase at 2 million tons—hitting its target for the first time in five tenders—while global markets absorb the impact of limited Chinese exports. China is expected to export only 3 million tons of urea in 2025, well below the usual 5 to 5.5 million tons.
In the U.S., nitrogen prices remain out of sync with grain values. The urea-to-corn ratio sits at 99 bushels per ton, and UAN at 79 bushels per ton, both ranking as the second worst in history for this time of year. U.S. supply risks persist due to plant downtime, Russian import restrictions, and uncertain Trinidad flows.
Phosphate markets face similar strain. NOLA DAP prices recently topped $800 per ton, pushing the DAP-to-corn ratio to a record 185.5 bushels per ton, surpassing the 2008 high. India has capped new phosphate purchases at $810 CFR but remains understocked with just 1.75 million tons on hand.
Future supply expansions are underway in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt—but production gains may be years away, not months.