NASHVILLE, TN – Global fertilizer markets are adjusting as new trade and supply signals emerge. Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, says China may raise its 2025 urea export target from 2 to 3 million tons. While still unconfirmed, this move could concentrate exports between June and October, creating downward price pressure.
Meanwhile, India is securing significantly more urea than expected through recent purchase tenders, possibly reaching 1.5 million tons in its June round—far above earlier projections. Linville interprets this as suppliers seeing current prices as their best opportunity to sell, potentially signaling lower values ahead.
In North America, the nitrogen market remains on edge over potential fertilizer tariffs threatened by President Trump against Russia—a key supplier of both urea and UAN. Disruptions could spike prices, especially for UAN, which has fewer global alternatives.
Spring 2025 saw major UAN supply issues, and 2026 begins with record-low inventories and planned facility shutdowns. These conditions heighten the risk of renewed supply shortfalls next spring.