NASHVILLE, TN – The World Bank reports that global trade growth is slowing sharply in 2025, largely due to rising tariffs, retaliatory measures, and policy uncertainty. After averaging nearly 5 percent annually in the two decades before the pandemic, trade growth is projected to slip to just 1.8 percent this year—less than half the pace of 2024. Advanced economies are seeing the steepest declines, but emerging markets tied to U.S. and European demand are also affected.
For U.S. agriculture, these headwinds matter. Mexico, China, and other major buyers of U.S. grain, meat, and oilseeds face increased uncertainty over tariffs and supply chains. The slowdown in U.S. goods imports and weaker manufacturing demand abroad could weigh on farm exports, especially for crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. At the same time, elevated shipping costs and policy-driven trade frictions make it harder for U.S. commodities to stay competitive in world markets.
Still, some bright spots exist. The report notes that new and expanding regional trade agreements—such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the African Continental Free Trade Area—could open fresh opportunities. For U.S. farmers, however, the outlook remains challenging. Unless trade barriers ease and supply chains stabilize, weaker export demand could translate into softer prices and slower growth across the ag sector in 2025 and 2026.