LUBBOCK, TX – Two closely watched USDA cattle reports later this month will offer critical signals on feedlot supplies and whether the long-anticipated herd rebuilding phase is beginning, according to Dr. David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension.
The January Cattle on Feed report, due January 23, is expected to show December marketings about 2 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting one additional slaughter day. Even so, daily average marketings likely trailed last year due to fewer cattle available. Placements are projected roughly 5 percent lower year over year, driven largely by the continued absence of feeder cattle imports from Mexico. With higher marketings and lower placements, total cattle on feed as of January 1 are expected to be down more than 2 percent.
Attention will center on the share of heifers on feed, a key indicator of whether producers are retaining females for future herd growth.
The January 30 Cattle inventory report should clarify whether the cattle cycle has bottomed. Beef cow numbers are expected to be roughly unchanged from a year ago, as sharply lower cow slaughter in 2025 offset limited heifer retention. Anderson notes evidence of meaningful herd expansion remains thin, despite record-high calf prices.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Upcoming USDA reports will shape expectations for cattle supplies, prices, and prospects for herd rebuilding in 2026.