WASHINGTON, DC – Abundant exportable wheat supplies are helping lift global trade in 2025/26, keeping international prices relatively low and supporting stronger import demand in key markets.
USDA’s March Wheat Outlook, coordinated by Andrew Sowell, projects global wheat trade near the second-highest level on record as larger shipments from Argentina, Australia, and the European Union more than offset reduced exports from Ukraine. Record global production is forecast at 842.1 million metric tons, while consumption also rises as wheat becomes more competitive in feed rations.
For U.S. producers, the domestic balance sheet was unchanged. Production remains forecast at 1.985 billion bushels, exports at 900 million bushels, and ending stocks at 931 million bushels. However, the season-average farm price was raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel even as ending stocks held at a six-year high.
Globally, major importers, including Turkey, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia, are increasing their purchases, while exporter-held stocks remain at the highest level since 2009/10.
Looking ahead, strong foreign supplies and steady trade competition are likely to keep wheat markets focused on price competitiveness and export pace.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Export competition remains heavy despite solid trade.