NASHVILLE, TN – Lumber futures prices continued their climb last week, gaining 3.2% to $552 per 1,000 board feet—marking a 39% increase from a year ago. Softwood lumber prices overall are up nearly 17% year-over-year, driven by constrained supply, trade frictions, and rising demand in housing and manufacturing.
A key driver of recent price increases is the escalating tariff rate on Canadian softwood lumber. While Canadian spruce-pine-fir prices rose, buyers did not switch to southern pine substitutes despite higher costs. Industry analysts say ongoing uncertainty around trade negotiations and duties is limiting flexibility in the market.
Meanwhile, U.S. lumber production dropped to 9.1 billion board feet in the first quarter of 2025, down 2.1% from the previous year. Imports also fell 5.1%, largely due to a 6.5% reduction in shipments from Canada. Non-Canadian imports rose modestly but remain a small portion of total supply.
Despite full-capacity operations at many southern mills, supply has not kept pace with demand. The housing market remains soft, but construction costs continue to climb due to material shortages and inflationary pressure.
Higher lumber prices have a direct impact on home construction. A new single-family home uses around 15,000 board feet of framing lumber, and rising costs are quickly passed along the supply chain. Builders often experience delays in price relief due to supplier inventory cycles, while price hikes reach them much faster.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) continues to advocate for increased domestic logging access and a long-term agreement with Canada to reduce volatility in the lumber market.