NASHVILLE, TN – USDA’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivered a shock to grain markets Tuesday, projecting a record U.S. corn crop of 16.7 billion bushels for 2025. That’s roughly 1 billion bushels more than last month’s forecast and well above trade expectations. USDA pegged corn yield at 188.8 bushels per acre — the highest on record — with ending stocks expected at 2.1 billion bushels, the largest since 2018/19. Corn usage was also raised, with exports projected at 2.9 billion bushels. The big supply increase sent corn futures to five-year lows.
Soybean production was trimmed by 43 million bushels to 4.3 billion, as reduced harvested area outweighed strong yields of 53.6 bushels per acre. USDA cut soybean exports by 40 million bushels, lowering ending stocks to 290 million. That figure came in under many analyst estimates, lending modest support to soybean markets.
For wheat, USDA made only slight changes to production, but raised exports by 25 million bushels on stronger early demand. Ending stocks were lowered to 869 million bushels, tightening the domestic supply picture.
Cotton faces more challenging conditions. USDA lowered U.S. production to 13.2 million bales on an average yield of 862 lb/acre. Citing an 8 percent drop in planted area, 15 percent decline in harvested acres, and rising abandonment (now 21 percent compared to 14 percent), the National Ag Statistics Service projects a season-average price of 64¢ per pound amid tighter supplies.
Internationally, USDA’s projections reflected continued strong global competition, especially from the Black Sea region, but U.S. wheat demand remains firm in both traditional and opportunistic markets.
The report’s surprise was the sheer size of the corn crop, which exceeded even the most optimistic trade guesses. While soybeans and wheat saw adjustments that may support prices, the corn outlook is decidedly bearish unless weather or export demand changes the balance.